Competition among 2006 Legislative Candidates Decreases
Despite Upswings in Numbers of Candidates and Total Fundraising

In 2006, the number of legislative races with competitive fundraising decreased by 56 percent while the number of candidates increased by 20 percent and total dollars increased by 17 percent since 2002.

Chart 1: Comparison of Fundraising through 1^st Reporting Period, 2002, 2004 and 2006 General Elections

MiPRAP compiled data from reports filed with the state Elections Division. Data for 2006 could change due to auditing and amendments. Data for 2002 and 2004 are adjusted for inflation. Cash totals include beginning cash balances and contributions reported in the 1^st Pre-General Election period for each year. 

Elections in 2002 and 2006 share important characteristics.  They are both mid-term, non-presidential elections featuring hotly contested gubernatorial races. 

There are also some important differences in legislative races between the two years.  In 2002, the balance of power between the two major parties was very close in both the House and the Senate.  Going into the election [i] , House Republicans held 32 seats and House Democrats held 28.  In the Senate, Republicans held 16 seats and Democrats held 14.  In 2002, there were 103 House candidates and 32 Senate candidates.

Now, the balance of power in the Senate is lopsided, while in the House it is close.  The House comprises 33 Republicans and 27 Democrats.  In the Senate, Democrats hold 17 seats, Republicans hold 11 and Independents hold the remaining 2.  There are 127 House and 35 Senate candidates.

The 20 percent increase in the number of candidates in 2006 over 2002 suggests that the level of competitiveness in House and Senate races has improved.  But analysis of fundraising changes the story.  Since 2002, 91 percent of legislative races were won by the candidate who raised more money.

Chart 2: Competition Analysis of 2002 General Election Races through the 1^st Reporting Period

MiPRAP compiled data from reports filed with the state Elections Division. Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

Chart 3: Competition Analysis of 2004 General Election Races through the 1^st Reporting Period

MiPRAP compiled data from reports filed with the state Elections Division.  Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

Chart 4: Competition Analysis of 2006 General Election Races through the 1^st Reporting Period

MiPRAP compiled data from reports filed with the state Elections Division. Data for 2006 could change due to auditing and amendments.  Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

In 2006, only 5 percent of House races featured “equal opportunity” candidates who raised 75 percent or more than the money frontrunner, down from 12 percent in 2002.  Twelve percent of House races this year feature a candidate running unopposed, while only 10 percent did in 2002.  In 2006, half of all House races are characterized by a second-place fundraising candidate who is “drowned out” – who raised a quarter or less of the total than the lead fundraiser.  In 2002, 57 percent of them were. 

(In cases where there are three or more candidates, MiPRAP calculated the difference between the two highest fundraisers. See charts at www.oregonfollowthemoney.org and follow the link to “Who is Running?”)

Three of four Senate races are either unopposed or “drowned out” this year, while only one in three were in 2002.  Thirteen percent of Senate races present “equal opportunity” to two of the candidates in the race, down from 33 percent in 2002.

“While it is possible for a fundraising underdog to win, being a fundraising frontrunner is the single-best predictor of whether you will prevail in a legislative race,” said Sarah Wetherson, research and outreach associate of the Money in Politics Research Action Project (MiPRAP). More candidates do not necessarily make races more competitive.  Leveling the playing field so that candidates with good ideas have the money they need to get a message out helps.  One way to do that is through public financing of political campaigns,” concluded Wetherson.

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